Is Dorian Down to a Cat 4 Again
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Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2019/08/30/friday-night-dorian-a-cat-4-an-extreme-threat-to-all-of-southeast-u-s-and-northern-bahamas/
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Best assay yet, Levi. It all comes down to: We don't know yet who is going to get hammered the most or exactly when. I appreciate your difficult piece of work on this. Go some rest now. You Bahamians and S Floridians take care also.
Love this guy, finely someone that talks in detail about the steering currents effecting the storms behavior.
You are without a doubt my go to guy for reliable, make clean information. I've learned so much from you lot! This site has been my primary source since Irma and the only one I trust for simple raw truth. Thank you and so much !!!
I am dislocated near one thing and you may have discussed it just I missed it …. Why did these models miss the intensification between the islands and Bahamas? Every one final week showed information technology falling autonomously ..
I gauge it's water under the bridge at this point merely as I larn o like to discover the errors and adjust accordingly
Tabitha
Concluding week the models were showing the storm track further south and traveling over more of these mountainous islands. When the track shifted due north a chip, the storm missed the islands and the mountains that would weaken information technology.
People in Florida ,if not the wind, the h2o, their could be tidal surges upward to 25 ft, away from the center eyeball, interim as a bulldozer, pushing h2o ashore for up 24 hours,
Thank you for this work! It makes it so much easier to sympathize. I trust your opinion. Being in Palm Coast Florida, I capeesh your time and effort nd the manner you convey the message. I hope yous start posting more than at nighttime! We need it!
Widespread harm in Marsh Harbour, burn down station has sustained lost of structure integrity, think what happened to homes and other structures ,I am non a meteorologist, merely I know if lots of other islands are losing force per unit area the eyeball is expanding
Excellent Analysis Levi! Cheers!
God Speed Florida and S.E. America!
Bully commentary. An extremely in-depth wait at the nuances of predicting this tempest's path.
Solid analysis. The rather sudden intensification process is unmistakable. The convection looks tighter, the wind speeds take increased and the superstructure of the eye wall appears to have dramatically taken a much more organized form. This undoubtably represents strengthening and is confirmed with a drop in the key force per unit area to 950mb with 125 MPHwinds and hurricane force winds now extending 30 miles out from its center.
The hurricane does appear to exist a fleck squashed in the north to due south dimension as its full evolution in the southern quadrants appears to be impeded,…possibly by windshear and dryer air. The low pressure level organization currently in the Midwest and moving east will have a increasing take chances to weaken the Bermuda high in the coming 24-36 hrs and crusade it to retreat. Equally the hurricane's forrad motility stalls with an absence of predominant steering,…this certainly brings about the POSSIBILITY that it may move north before reaching the declension and keep the eyewall offshore but information technology is as well early on to know that for sure, simply Two concord the potential for a potent category 4 or even a 5 tropical cyclone is in that location ! Also call up that an eyewall (fifty-fifty 30 miles off the declension at this point) will still expose the coast to hurricane force winds.
Cheers then much for your rational explanations. Stay safe yourself! I am in Ocean City, MD and you lot are my go to source for tropical updates.
I miss Ocean City and so much! My grandparents had a condo in the Bramar when I was a kid. At present in Ft. Laud. Stay prophylactic!
Hi Levi, Thanks. What is the reasoning in having the southern most of Fl. and the Keys in the cone? What could crusade the storm to proceed sw? Seems like all forces are wanting to push it north
Models are just that models. Hence why is stated to always get by official forecasts considering the temper is constantly changing and merely because a model says something is going to happen does not hateful it is going to happen that mode its a computerized theory. A highly intelligent one, but in some cases a flawed one equally well. As Levi said one little alter is all information technology takes to alter the entire thing track and all. Gear up for the worst and be incorrect is always ameliorate than being skeptical and paying the cost
Facts.
Appreciate your realistic have, factual and logical while also imparting the seriousness without fearmongering. Mad respect, Levi
Equally someone living in Melbourne, FL I can' thank you plenty for the efforts y'all put into this. Literally this is critical info to know the variability of this situation. I hope you work weekends!!
You have found your calling sir, I hope you are existence handsomely rewarded for your efforts too.
It says at the top he accepts contributions :)
Done. ;-)
Great analysis of the steering currents and explanation of the shifting forecast tracks. Thanks for the info.
Thanks Levi!
This is the well-nigh comprehensive and realistic analysis of a hurricane that I take always seen. I think that this work is the result of experience, knowledge, and hard work. Thank you lot for making this available to an amateur weather condition observer similar me. Nigh of my seventy-two years on the planet has been partly occupied past observing the weather in full general and in particular storms similar this which affect the states here in Louisiana. I was a little child when Hurricane Audrey devastated Cameron. I remember keeping an eye on our new black and white Boob tube and checking what now seems sparse information equally the tempest approached. I recollect continuing on our forepart porch watching the clouds race past overhead as the wind gradually picked upwards. At that place was a very large tree across the gravel street which towered up to the sky. I remember wondering if it would come crashing down on our house. In the end, a large part of that tree was diddled down onto the street. High winds and torrential rains knocked downwards limbs and branches which tangled upwards in power lines. We were out of ability for a couple of weeks in the rut and humidity of early on summer; still, at that fourth dimension we didn't accept airconditioning and were used to the heat.
Really enjoy your explanations of tempest evolution and the mechanisms behind steering patterns. It's detailed, easy to follow and understand. Thank you lot then much for what you do!
This is an absolutely phenomenal video. Thank you Levi.
Levi, your assay is e'er comprehensive and well-reasoned. Thank you lot for taking the fourth dimension to cover the various subtleties in great item. It'due south refreshing that you keep both clickbait and sensationalism out of the equation.
A couple of points I'd like to bring up that tin can also have an impact on Dorian down the route:
i) If Dorian stalls for whatsoever length of time, there is the potential for upwelling which dredges up colder water from below and can act as a weakening mechanism.
ii) The well-nigh dangerous part of the storm is the northeastern quadrant (relative to the axis of move). Any movement n while paralleling of the coast offshore would proceed the almost unsafe sectors of the storm over h2o. Hurricane Matthew, albeit a weaker storm, behaved exactly this manner and spared much of the Florida declension from more severe impairment.
iii) Land interaction: the longer Dorian sits virtually Florida, the greater the hazard for disruption due to drier air entrainment from flow over land. Florida is a relatively narrow peninsula, then this effect would not be every bit slap-up versus Dorian remaining stationary near GA or SC.
4) Every bit you lot saliently point out, the angle of incidence at landfall (bold it makes landfall) is critical. Fifty-fifty a few degrees of deviation upon last arroyo can produce major rail differences 200 miles downstream. Conditions models have neither the resolution nor enough environmental sampling inputs to render departure-making microscale features with reliable precision.
Hopefully Dorian stays a fish storm and spares Florida and the Bahamas the worst of its wrath.
As always, thank you, Levi! Greatly capeesh your posts and commentary.
Just subscribed on Patreon. I hope you lot're getting plenty $$ to proceed doing this for a long time.
What was told to me past my ancestors, is coming true. Labor Twenty-four hour period Hurricanes are horrible.
And then yous say information technology'due south curving out to sea….? Great news!!!
I have never heard such an easy to understand explanation of astringent weather conditions. Thank you!
Levi,
Thank you for tropical tidbits and
sharing all your knowledge, past far the best!☺️
Give thanks you and so much for this in-depth analysis. You lot have such a great way of explaining all the nuances. I'k in Northward Broward and when the 11 PM advisory came out they were making it seem similar we are in the clear for a directly hit. It gets frustrating trying to figure out if it's going to striking or not and now I empathize why it's so difficult to pivot-point. Looking forward to tomorrow's video.
Stay rubber anybody!
The main lack of rainfall on the due east declension is from Melbourne, Fla. to Savannah, Ga and so a larger area near Fairfax and Allendale, SC at a mere xxx inches. Meanwhile, offshore eastward from Cape Lookout Lighthouse the atmospheric precipitation is at over 100 inches in quite a big area as noted on 365 solar day previous rainfall totals at AHPC. This discrepancy is quite large at seventy inches. Otherwise, rainfall totals are more compatible in the east except for areas near Michigan and New York that are lower, again near thirty inches. A difference as well in a smaller area n of Atlanta is at over 100 inches, as are other areas near Houston and New Orleans. I would see a bulwark to highest rain totals in the areas at over 100 inches. All the same the higher rainfall areas coming up could radiate outward from the higher totals, while lower totals well-nigh thirty inches could have a violent upswing in rain. Give thanks you.
Midnight GFS is in.
The Euro is in west of the GFS. Then the consensus for Florida, is coast or inland based on overall Euro history. Butterflies must be changing things a bit.
Actually the Euro is off the Florida coast similar the GFS at this run.
Hope this eastward shift continues for u.s. here in Melbourne and the entire due east coast.
I am in Titusville so this latest turn of events gives me a sigh of relief. Thank yous!
The "Mystery Meter" of hurricane wind speed always indicates higher velocities than those verifiable by the common man. Dorian can be measured on Windy.com at a maximum of 50 knots while the "authorities" are saying 145 mph. When Dorian passes about weather condition stations or weather bouys, the aforementioned unexplained variance can be observed. It is historically true and will continue to exist so. Information technology reminds me of the line from I Love Lucy, "Are you going to believe me or your lying eyes?"
Can you explain?
The category is based on the maximum lx-2nd sustained wind anywhere (at basis level) in the hurricane. Typically that's in the eyewall on the leading side (where the circular motion is in the same management as the storm motility).
Except in that one special spot, for those detail minutes, the wind speed will be lower. Elsewhere in the middle, slightly lower. Outside the eye, significantly lower. If the eye does not pass over an anemometer, it volition not run into maximum winds.
Information technology'due south a real wind speed, but any particular stationary observer about the hurricane has a very small chance of encountering it.
The terminal few minutes of the assay was a scrap alarmist in regards to S Florida. The 8:00 am advisory this morning has united states outside the cone. Guidance to wait and sentinel that informational would have been more appropriate. Since you are such a trusted and valued source that information was quite disturbing, especially since the time to react would have been very short from stall over Bahama islands until landfall and since TS conditions would have been in place.
Please consider this as constructive criticism as information technology was intended.
Telling people to be prepared in regards to a dangerous hurricane I would not consider alarmist.
The headline conspicuously states the fourth dimension of his analysis — this one is from Fri nighttime, not this forenoon (Saturday). Levi is amazing and he calls it similar he sees information technology at the time of his post – yous can't blame him for not predicting the future!
Levi, only another vocalism expressing appreciation for what y'all practise and your clear explanations. My eyes practise gloss over at the word "milibar" simply other than that you make it easy to sympathise. I don't know what yous do in your twenty-four hour period job, or where you lot got your preparation, only YOU are my weatherman!
Appreciate your website, Levi. Truthfully, I thought you were just another "hack" on the internet during IRMA, but when yous were getting into the analysis, breakdown, and all of that good stuff with IRMA, I was like, "I know when I stand corrected!" You sir….you corrected me! I always look forrad to your assay. Give thanks you!
Alas. The GFS shifted west again, probably by a practiced 30 miles right afterward the NWS Hurricane Eye update forecasting an eastern shift. This storm has a history of surprises. The center missed Republic of cuba, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico(however dangerous rains came late on the s side).
The EURO is coming in and shifted south and quicker west on the first 48. 72 hr nevertheless to come up in.
Crawly insights! It would be great to hear from you more than than once a day…
I wish the talking heads on media would end trying to pinpoint it because it makes the public dislocated near preparation and instead they should just get out the warning upward for the entire land of FL and then that when in case it doesn't turn in time and perhaps hits Southward FL hard people are battened down and set. I feel like these experts are setting themselves upwards for a colossal error past predicting this turn away
This is yesterday'south post by Levi. So are all the possibilities he mentioned still REALLY in play, or can nosotros rule SOME out? People in Ft. Lauderdale are celebrating at bars saying they're in the clear. Are they? I know they weren't during this post, but that was yesterday. Are some people now in the clear?
As the storm moves toward Abaco, let's all practice pronouncing Alaska for Mr. Levi Cowan! Alaska
uh – l ah southward – yard ah
Seriously, let'southward remember to go higher to safer ground and turn around, don't drown.
Cheers Levi.
NAVGEM as of 1500 Hrs 8/31 has it sitting on Browards coast and pushing h2o for 2 days
This is starting to look like a possible Greatcoat Fear Hurricane, especially after the forecasted stall out over the northern Commonwealth of the bahamas and the retreat of the Bermuda Loftier due to e moving Low pressure,….what practice you recollect Levi ?
Volition this become a category 5?
With less shear in its immediate proximity and plenty of deep warm water in front of it the eyewall is popping out with an easily visible "stadium event"…farther strengthening is besides confirmed by how tightly and uniformly the inner core bands are wrapped effectually the key convection…noting these physical characteristics,……it has become a "beautiful" textbook tropical cyclone….if that term can be applied to a merciless destruction motorcar.
Every bit of 5pm the max sustained current of air speed now is 150 MPH and central pressure has dropped to 945mb,…..I would not at all be surprised if this is upgraded to Category v over the adjacent 12 hrs. Let'south promise it moves away from populated land masses as presently as possible as it agree the post entail for massive destruction.
Looks like models are inching back to Florida?
Levi! I'd dear to hear from you today! Interesting reports and models today. Please!!
I accept grave concerns that all this talk well-nigh it turning away accept made people in S Florida melody out.
Yes Danielle. Believe it or not, the 1800 GFS edged toward Fla. once again. This is like science fiction.
In fact I only rechecked the 1200 and 1800 GFS and it is a more than dramatic change westward, at this indicate, than one might expect. Big thing we all similar big (ice cream) cones.
My ancestors ever talked about the Labor Day Hurricanes being bad. Florida needs to watch this with nervous eyes. Hurricanes don't turn fast, they wobble, and turn slowly. This could exist a Cat 5, or Cat 4 at landfall with the winds, but the tidal surge volition be a Cat 5 anyways, no mater what, a hurricane pushes, and pulls h2o ashore for twoscore miles.
Where'southward the expert when we need him!
This is some of your best piece of work Levi!
First course coverage. Thank you! I also watch
https://vortex.plymouth.edu/tropical from the excellent met dept at Plymouth State Higher in Plymouth, NH. Some other showtime class source and information concentrator for it all.
Larry